Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 26.729011 28.466623 30.329224 32.486696 34.932921 37.639989 40.890066
2025-11-23 24.412549 26.817171 29.546912 32.920721 37.045866 42.021317 48.636699
2025-11-30 22.839963 25.556571 28.749977 32.863125 38.152768 44.935323 54.686307
2025-12-07 21.509468 24.396521 27.879818 32.511051 38.711799 47.079009 59.969846
2025-12-14 19.977891 22.848693 26.368716 31.143761 37.706626 46.871607 61.696858
2025-12-21 19.283784 22.276697 26.018991 31.223177 38.616665 49.414349 68.082939
2025-12-28 18.792524 21.916367 25.896300 31.566870 39.894935 52.636689 76.336551
2026-01-04 17.976204 21.085405 25.092300 30.887871 39.580532 53.290294 80.099956
2026-01-11 17.700601 20.939392 25.184962 31.466905 41.199689 57.308891 91.564059
2026-01-18 17.345874 20.664777 25.077633 31.734309 42.342568 60.680592 102.940039
2026-01-25 16.753690 20.042172 24.451510 31.180215 42.089179 61.467430 108.556854
2026-02-01 16.191830 19.437737 23.821043 30.576273 41.691947 61.916241 113.507070
2026-02-08 15.476867 18.667420 23.017817 29.813613 41.229214 62.719155 121.652231
2026-02-15 15.146251 18.419589 22.959155 30.223227 42.892527 68.328812 149.282224
2026-02-22 14.723327 18.014285 22.636143 30.167692 43.691736 72.298923 176.472914
2026-03-01 14.271876 17.545363 22.188653 29.866083 43.983853 75.196623 204.157562
2026-03-08 13.626927 16.774927 21.252756 28.687262 42.452017 73.281728 205.799363
2026-03-15 13.346733 16.514789 21.070148 28.755901 43.373867 77.875555 254.270471
2026-03-22 13.142741 16.354014 21.026684 29.052626 44.792016 84.326319 341.942532
2026-03-29 12.743061 15.892721 20.497881 28.466063 44.292731 85.127366 385.405387
2026-04-05 12.619359 15.830267 20.583572 28.966358 46.188094 94.024275 623.376312
2026-04-12 12.442407 15.681040 20.523441 29.197055 47.525258 101.848394 1112.904956
2026-04-19 12.123906 15.309705 20.093311 28.718781 47.169754 103.479673 1562.935542